Updated April 10, 2022
Table of Contents
Curse of the First
In case you missed it, there’s a curse of being first in the NWSL. Of the eight NWSL seasons, a team has only won the championship twice in the same year that they won the NWSL Shield. In other words, the top team in the league has only gone on to become champions in 25% of the seasons.
But don’t think that the curse of the first is just for the NWSL. When you take into account other women’s soccer leagues in the US*, it appears that the curse is about the same elsewhere. Similar to the NWSL, just under 20% of the top teams in the regular season go on to win the championship. Ouch!
So what is the best place to finish if you want to win the championship: second place.
Teams that finished in first or second place in the regular season made it to the finals over 70% of the time. Of those, the second place team has won the championship almost twice as much as the first.
Data compiled by Nine Left Stripes from various women’s soccer leagues in the US.*
* Data was analyzed from the 2013-2021 National Women’s Soccer League seasons; the 2003-15 USL W-League seasons; the 2016-2021 United Women’s Soccer seasons; the 2005-2013, 2015, and 2018 Women’s Premier Soccer League seasons; and the 2012 Women’s Premier Soccer League Elite season. Games were weighted in seasons where teams did not play the same number of games. League leaders were decided by points. Tiebreakers were decided by goal differential and then goals for.
How to Win the NWSL Shield
Point System First
The breakout of how to earn the Shield goes first by points and then a series of tiebreakers.
The point system is pretty common in soccer. You get a certain amount of points for every win and draw (tie).
- Three (3) points for every win
- One (1) point for every draw
- No points (0) for a loss
The Portland Thorns FC beat OL Reign for the 2021 NWSL Shield based on this point system.
Portland Thorns FC (First Place)
13 wins = 13 * 3 = 39 points
5 draws = 5 * 1 = 5 points
6 losses = 6 * 0 = 0 points
Total of 44 points
OL Reign (Second Place)
13 wins = 13 * 3 = 39 points
3 draws = 3 * 1 = 3 points
8 losses = 8 * 0 = 0 points
Total of 42 points
Tiebreakers Second
In the event there is a draw, which is not uncommon, it then goes to tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head record – if tying teams have played each other during the season than the team that won the most between them would be ranked higher
- Goal differential – the goals scored on a team subtracted from the goals scored by a team
- Goals for – goals scored by a team
- Head-to-head away record – same thing as the head-to-head but only for games where the team had to travel and didn’t play at home
- Away goal differential – same as goal differential but only for games where the team had to travel and didn’t play at home
- Away goals for – same as goal for but only for games where the team had to travel and didn’t play at home
- Coin toss – if all else fails, tiebreakers will be decide by the age-old coin toss
Now, I don’t know of any time, or how often, a tiebreaker is decided by a coin toss, but there have been a few times where tiebreakers were needed in the NWSL.
In 2017, the Boston Breakers (record of 4 W – 7 D – 13 L) and Washington Spirit (record of 5 W – 4 D – 15 L) tied for last place using the point system, even though Washington Spirit had more wins. Ultimately, the biggest loser that season was the Washington Spirit.
NWSL Shield and Previous Winners
The National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) gives out an award each year for the team with the best record in the regular season. It’s called the NWSL Shield. So far, there have been four (4) Shield winners in the eight (8) years that it has been awarded.
Did not make it to the finals. Championship game has not been played yet.
The season was canceled due to COVID.
NWSL Champions (beat Chicago Red Stars)
NWSL Champions (beat Portland Thorns FC)
NWSL Runners-up (lost to Portland Thorns FC)
Did not make it to the finals. Western New York Flash beat Washington Spirit for Championship.
NWSL Runners-up (lost to FC Kansas City)
NWSL Runners-up (lost to FC Kansas City)
NWSL Runners-up (lost to Portland Thorns FC)
While the winner of the NWSL Shield won’t actually finish in second place this year, they won’t be going to the championship game either. Instead, this year the third and fourth place regular season teams will be going on to complete for the 2021 championship. This is the first time in NWSL history that the championship will not be one of top two regular season teams.
2021 Championship Game
Coming in second place doesn’t apply to this year’s NWSL Championship game since both the first and second place teams have been knocked out of the competition. So, if I were the Washington Spirit (third in regular season) I would be feeling pretty lucky knowing that in most games where the first and second place regular teams aren’t playing, the higher ranked team wins. And if I were Chicago Red Stars (fourth in regular season), I’d be a little worried right about now.
UPDATE: Washington Spirit won the NWSL Championship game, just like the data said they would.
