Table of Contents
- Top 10 Teams in the Women’s Soccer Rankings
- About the Women’s Soccer Rankings
- Predicting the Women’s World Cup Winner
- Rankings and the USWNT
Top 10 Teams in the Women’s Soccer Rankings as of March 2022
FIFA just announced the March 2022 women’s soccer rankings for teams across the world, and no one should be surprised to see that the United States Women’s National Team (USWNT) is sitting in first place. In fact, the USWNT has not ranked lower than second in nearly two decades. So, if this is all so predictable, one has to wonder if the rankings mean anything. But, after some digging, it appears that the rankings might be fairly accurate and can tell us a lot.
| Ranking | Team | Total Points | Previous Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 2104.06 | 2109.09 | -5.03 |
| 2 | Sweden | 2081.54 | 2079.13 | 2.41 |
| 3 | France | 2046.48 | 2034.41 | 12.07 |
| 4 | Germany | 2040.98 | 2070.26 | -29.28 |
| 5 | Netherlands | 2013.93 | 2021.99 | -8.06 |
| 6 | Canada | 2010.07 | 2007.21 | 2.86 |
| 7 | Spain | 1980.28 | 1959.16 | 21.12 |
| 8 | England | 1977.78 | 1974.29 | 3.49 |
| 9 | Brazil | 1969.34 | 1976.86 | -7.52 |
| 10 | Korea DPR | 1940.00 | 1940 | 0 |
Women’s Soccer Rankings System
FIFA, the Fédération Internationale de Football Association, is a non-profit that promotes soccer worldwide. Each quarter FIFA releases a ranking of national soccer teams to measure the strength of the teams in relation to one another. They use a point system based on the results of games played, whether the game was home or away, the significance of the game, and the differences in the rankings of each team. According to FIFA, the formula for calculating a team’s ranking looks like the following:
New ranking = Old ranking + (Actual results – Predicted results)
Predicting the Women’s World Cup Winner
Women’s World Cup Overview
In 1991, FIFA organized the inaugural FIFA Women’s World Cup, a quadrennial competition in which countries from across the world compete. This tournament is composed of two playoff styles: the round-robin group stage and the knockout stage. The round-robin group style when teams are broken into separate groups after qualifying for the tournament. The top teams in each group, usually first and second, advance to the knockout rounds.
To date, there are only four previous Women’s World Cup winners: United States, Germany, Japan, and Norway. Initially the 1991 Women’s World Cup had 12 teams participating, but has since grown to 32 international teams. The next Women’s World Cup will be co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand in 2023.
Group Stage Dominance
As it stands, teams that finished at the top of their group have gone on to win the Women’s World Cup nearly every time. Specifically, the Champion has won first in their group phase in seven (7) of eight (8) Women’s World Cups. Japan was the only team to finish second in their group and then go on to win the tournament, which was in 2011.
Rankings Going into the Group Stage
Obviously, ranking high in the group stage is important. This is partially because it’s rarer that a third place team gets to advance. Some years a third place group finisher could advance while other years they could not. This is dependent on the number of teams and groups in the tournament. However, finishing in first place in group seems to indicate a better chance to win the tournament. This may be because a first place group finish usually leads to perks such as more rest or a weaker opponent in the knockout round.
Either way, rankings going into a tournament have been very telling on how a team will finish in their group. Teams with 200+ points over the average of their group have finished higher in the tournament.
Even more telling, of the last five Women’s World Cups, all of the champions were listed in the top four of the women’s soccer ranking before the start of the tournament. Although, having a first place soccer rank prior to the start doesn’t give one a clear advantage. This might have something to do with the curse of the first.
Rankings and the USWNT
History of the USWNT’s Rank
Since July 16, 2003, the USWNT has never ranked lower than second in the women’s soccer rankings. The lowest period in their ranking was from 2003 to 2007, where they fluctuated back and forth from first to second. Their longest first place ranking streak was from March 21, 2008 to September 19, 2014. The latest ranking, released on March 25, 2022, will make this the 20th time in a row that the USWNT ranked in first place.
USWNT Going in the 2023 Women’s World Cup
It’s clear that the women’s soccer rankings provided by FIFA have been accurate in measuring the strength of a team. If the USWNT can remain in the top four rankings going into the 2023 Women’s World Cup, it is a good sign that they will place high in the tournament. Let’s hope that the USWNT also has a large point differential compared to others in their group and that they can finish their group in first place. So, let’s hope we don’t see one of the other top nine (9) ranked teams in the USWNT’s round robin group.
